Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 29.058755 34.588949 40.658734 47.785315 55.892260 64.796000 75.281870
2025-02-09 21.287722 28.705216 37.653550 49.109253 63.239814 79.948326 101.034604
2025-02-16 16.756570 24.930778 35.537669 50.019000 68.951952 92.520774 123.692116
2025-02-23 13.364463 21.711150 33.256803 49.907766 72.753993 102.405031 143.107801
2025-03-02 10.615693 18.756967 30.714940 48.847081 74.822710 109.789824 159.354973
2025-03-09 8.747747 16.711068 29.066672 48.658589 77.804262 118.289656 177.256932
2025-03-16 6.722663 13.992626 25.960435 45.854649 76.628161 120.762946 186.824072
2025-03-23 5.910323 13.168824 25.683329 47.251028 81.606335 132.058431 209.099453
2025-03-30 4.876572 11.729268 24.164026 46.450158 83.079493 138.230792 224.222580
2025-04-06 4.483943 11.444309 24.577981 48.819429 89.597600 152.128280 251.113064
2025-04-13 3.433466 9.587359 21.895803 45.612786 86.864905 151.790979 256.787114
2025-04-20 3.032465 9.045924 21.590461 46.510832 90.879786 161.977789 278.647804
2025-04-27 2.808701 8.935396 22.243201 49.453181 98.966789 179.639923 313.813256
2025-05-04 2.456074 8.440760 22.075435 50.903410 104.690525 193.999733 344.805800
2025-05-11 2.116392 7.882843 21.678110 51.845274 109.546795 207.153195 374.425780
2025-05-18 1.760097 7.167202 20.808390 51.731072 112.445086 217.156570 399.372151
2025-05-25 1.410306 6.345800 19.543328 50.639042 113.407453 223.882196 419.208914
2025-06-01 1.167929 5.771997 18.759549 50.444964 115.997263 233.450177 444.017838
2025-06-08 0.859553 4.829352 16.854968 47.557410 113.116902 233.278965 452.507866
2025-06-15 0.761960 4.634216 16.879694 48.995548 118.850941 248.577904 487.648146
2025-06-22 0.609089 4.138893 15.977696 48.170757 119.934197 255.530621 508.731585
2025-06-29 0.567065 4.115052 16.428128 50.610571 127.874202 275.288781 552.591518
2025-07-06 0.399272 3.388965 14.620868 47.308289 123.541049 272.180904 556.395857